10/17/17

 

  • Another voice sounds warnings about the corporate credit markets.

 

  • UST yield curves continue to grind flatter, even as the punditry calls for a steeper yield curve.

 

  • Economic data indicate that the recent boost to inflation could be transitory. The bond market appears to agree.

2017 Mid-year Outlook:

Fed Funds:                                     1.25%-1.50%

 

2-year UST Note Yield:                   1.70%

 

10-year UST Note Yield:                 2.40%

 

CPI (2017 average):            2.0%

 

Core CPI (2017 Average):              2.0%

 

PCE (2017 Average):                      1.6%

 

Core PCE (2017 Average):            1.6%

 

GDP (2017 Average):                      2.2%

 

WTI Crude Oil:                                  $40-$55 (range)

 

2017 Outlook:

Fed Funds Rate:                              1.25% – 1.50% (year-end)

 

2-year UST Note Yield:                   2.00% (year-end)

 

10-year UST Note Yield:                 2.70% (year-end)

 

CPI (2017 average):            2.0%

 

Core CPI (2017 Average):              2.2%

 

PCE (2017 Average):                      1.8%

 

Core PCE (2017 Average):            2.0%

 

GDP (2017 Average):                      2.6%

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